The Darkening of the Global Horizon – Courtesy Trump (#243)

The decades following the end of the Second World War have been generally globally progressive, peaceful, and for most countries, a time of increasing prosperity and therefore an age of advances in learning, technology, productivity, international integration, and measurable mitigation of global ignorance and poverty; in other words, all things considered, a golden age of peace and prosperity. But as is typical of the human species, to somewhat slow our evolution and prove and give reign to our basic instincts, periods of general peace and prosperity are usually followed by a period of division, conflicts, isolation, tribalism, the negation of progressive values, the disruption in productivity, an increase in destruction of assets, reduction in overall prosperity, and thus a general period of regression. It would seem we are now in one of these darkening periods, thanks in a large part to America going backwards under Donald Trump.

History, for those who care to pay it even a perfunctory glance, is ripe with examples of recurring human folly of greed driven political power plays that have shattered periods of relative peace and prosperity, with dark periods of conflict, chaos, regression and devastation. And, such a period was recent enough for even the current younger generation to be aware of, World War II, courtesy of a hyper-nationalist Germany, a fascist Italy and a war-like imperial Japan, all wanting to be ‘great again’; particularly Germany, struggling economically, humiliated, and frustrated after their defeat in the First World War, was ripe for Hitler’s wild promises of a return to former ‘greatness’, with a cleansed Germany, of ‘others’.

For those that don’t quite remember his speeches (promising a return to greatness to the German people), prior to World War II, they are worth a revisit. 

Inevitably, we seem to be in another such period, with Trump promising ‘greatness’ with isolationist, hyper-nationalistic America, giving a voice to nationalistic bigotry, which has allowed latent national racism and bigotry to resurface and flourish within America, and internationally. With Trump’s America leading the way, other countries were quick to follow the path to bigoted intolerance, nationalism, isolationism and re-erection of previously fallen barriers.

[Who can forget America’s leadership in the past in opening up closed countries: American Commodore Mathew Perry opening up a tightly closed Japan in 1853; or President Nixon opening an isolationist, suspicious China to the World in 1972. Most of all, who can forget President Ronald Reagan’s memorable peace cry in 1987, “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!", that brought down the most infamous Russian built ‘Berlin Wall’, and reunited the post WWII separated East and West Germany.]

Now after Trump, a fracturing Europe is once again awash in bigoted nationalism currently, forgetting the lessons of its long war ravaged history, with rising virulent animosity towards ‘outsiders-refugees’ in countries like Hungary, Poland, Italy, and a percentage of Germany; history unfortunately is in full ‘repeat’ mode.

An increasingly nationalistic Great Britain encouraged by the less than truthful, fear-stoking ‘Brexiters’, has been working at withdrawing from the European Union (EU) back into itself to recapture its apparently true lost ‘identity’, while firmly shutting out the dreaded flood of refugees from the former colonies of Africa. How much easier it was to just raid their resources endlessly, without having to worry about the impoverished people left behind. Now the ‘bloody natives’ want to actually move into ‘Jolly old England’ - oh the horror!

There is also a bolder, resurgent, authoritarian, ambitious Russia, under its autocratic President Vladimir Putin, committed to sowing discord and division among Western democracies.

Democracy, with various degrees of ‘capitalism’, proved to be the only competing political and economic system that thoroughly discredited Communism and Socialism, as a governing system, by its obvious success against their very public failures.

Putin’s aim has been to discredit the ultra-successful Western democracies, in comparison to Russia’s and China’s Communism and Socialism, by any and all means possible, to justify the harsh authoritarianism that Russia and China still cling to, at the expense of their tightly controlled long-suffering silenced citizenry.

In that quest Putin has been materially assisted by a slavishly adoring and consistently compliant Trump. The shockingly improbable actually happened, the President of the greatest Western democracy and the most powerful country, the United States of America, kow-towing to Russia, its greatest ideological, military adversary, teaming up with the next greatest threat to the U.S., communist China.

In Asia, a religiously divided nationalistic India, under the dictates of a violently aggressive Hindu nationalism, is increasingly burying its secular founding Constitution, crafted at the time of its Independence, under layers of age old grievances for past persecutions by foreign conquerors, particularly Muslim, and the British, seeking to rectify past sins in the present day, by incessant blame, daily revenge bullying and oppression of non-Hindus minorities, especially the largest minority group (approximately 14.2% of India’s population) the Indian Muslims.

In pursuing the retro-Hindu-ization of a secular modern India, and the subjugation, and at times forced conversion, of its minorities (approx. 5.8%) the fervent Hindu nationalists are ignoring, through sheer narrow-mindedness, the modern day lessons to be derived from its virulently one-religion intolerant neighbour, Pakistan, and its vast shortcomings.

Pakistan was formed on the basis of its predominant religion (Islam), and since its founding, has suffered perpetual political and economic instabilities, resulting in frequent, often violent, leadership changes, unusual domination of politics by the military in a so-called democracy, incubation of religious extremism and rampant internal terrorist activities, and a measurable lesser quality of life in comparison to the vastly more diverse, tolerant, vibrant, measurably more advanced and progressive India. But that is what economic-racial-religious narrow-mindedness does, even by a minority, it robs countries of forward progress and drags them backwards to their more ignorant, intolerant, primitive times. India’s enthusiastic religious isolationists, ‘a Hindu India for Hindus’, are ignoring the lessons of the political/economic/social disaster right next door, the intolerant Islamic Pakistan.

Additionally, apart from the discrediting of hyper-nationalism by the eventual destruction of fascist Germany, Italy and Japan by the ‘progressive forces’ of the democratic alliances, the post WWII World gave rise to the ultra-authoritarian systems of the USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) and PRC (People’s Republic of China), and their satellites, like some of the ‘independent’ countries of Eastern Europe, Latin & South America - for the USSR, and North Korea for China.

All of these ultra-national authoritarian regimes, without exception, proved to be ideological, economic and social disasters – till, after the literal collapse of the USSR, they started to ape some of the strengths of the liberal democracies - like human individualism over State collectivism, capitalism over socialism, internationalism over hyper-nationalism, and lowering of international barriers over building of walls.

Once they had through desperate necessity, ‘opened up’ to Western democratic and capitalistic systems, they started to make measurable social and economic progress, some like China, even stunning progress, under the guidance of the one true modern-day reformer Deng Xiaoping.

While Deng believed in the continued control of China with the iron fist of the Communist Party, he rejected some of the socio-economic practices that had continued to keep China poor and backward under Mao Zedong, for some of the West’s capitalistic-economic norms like a freer and more open economic market.

After Deng Xiaoping’s ‘Reforms’ China’s stunning progress from a shambles of a backward, severely underdeveloped country and economy, a hyper-nationalist ‘closed country and economy’, to a significantly more open one, with capitalist overtones, transformed China (the 10th largest in 1980) into the second largest economy in the World today, projected to surpass the United States by 1950.

Whether it does or not one will have to wait and see, but one thing is certain, in about three decades, China transformed itself into an economic, political, military, global power, with a healthy dose of openness and capitalism.

After the collapse of the former Soviet Union (or the USSR, as it was known then) the epitome of a closed, ‘iron curtained’, walled-in empire, Russia had the opportunity to ‘open-up’, adopt democracy’s better traits with an open economy and more democratic systems, but the looting of the economy by the powerful, and the choke hold on it by Putin since then, resulted in a stunted unbalanced economy, with a few disproportionately ultra-wealthy oligarchs, along with Putin, controlling most of its wealth, while the rest of the people live in general neglect.

In spite of these stark, unequivocal examples of the undesirability of nationalism, ‘closed’ socio-political-economic models, the current tendency towards just that, is once again in vogue, as if the collective minds of a great swathe of people in USA, Britain, Europe and Asia, can neither recall nor recognize the back-sliding towards the highly undesirable realities of the recent past of just a few decades. 

As usual, and as in the past, this political isolationism and hyper-nationalism is being fanned by a few power hungry World leaders that are tapping into the frustrations and anger of some segments of their populations to gain power, through politics of division, hatred and tribalism. This is what Hitler in Germany, Mussolini in Italy, and the leaders of Japan did prior to the start of the Second World War, and Stalin in the Soviet Union, and Mao Zedong in China did, post WWII. Most of those leaders led their countries into terrible wars, mass slaughter of their own people, and eventual national destruction, and decades of misery. 

As Trump in the United States fans the flames of hatred, division, nationalism and isolation through blatant lies, and as Britain and Europe struggle with separation and nationalism, and as India and others veer towards racial and/or religious bigotry, the advances made in the decades after WWII are starting to be reversed.

National animosities are on the rise again as is religious and racial hatreds.

Economically, the global economies that had been rescued by World governments at great financial and social cost after the financial crisis of 2008 are starting to once again show the strains brought on by isolationism and hyper-nationalism being championed by Trump. His administrations claims towards a fairer and more American-oriented global trading system could be achieved through openness and negotiations rather than aggression and tariff brinkmanship, which smacks more of adolescent immaturity, than World leader experience and maturity. Tough but civil negotiations between U.S., Mexico and Canada, in spite of Trump’s amateurish threats, resulted in a re-negotiated NAFTA.  

As Stock Markets tumble, generally, and especially in the emerging economies, and as uncertainty and volatility replaces years of stability and predictability, critical global investments become hesitant and then scarce, while currencies lose ground to flight-to-safety of the American dollar, making their dollar denominated debt to become even more problematic, thus creating additional uncertainty and risk.

China and the Emerging Markets are especially struggling with their leveraged economies, while the Western economies, while still relatively strong, will soon start to show the effects of geo-political, and economic uncertainty, as the storm clouds once again darken the global horizon, with recently renewed ‘arms race’, more authoritarian leaders talking tough, and progressive forces Worldwide in retreat for now, as the ‘proud patriotic’, ‘short-memoried‘ public once again rally to the cry of unscrupulous leaders - ‘let’s become great again’ through ‘Us versus Them’! The angst and uncertainty created by a belligerent Trump and America is not only bringing to the fore brutish intolerant forces such as Russia and Saudi Arabia, but will destabilize the global system which will come back to haunt the current global leader America, for ‘no nation is an island unto itself’.